April 11, 2009
Santiago Niño Becerra, professor of Economic Structure in Barcelona had predicted already by July 2007 that was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. 2010 is not yet here, but we are seeing the crisis already in the stock market. Or maybe we are not. To Niño Becerra what is happening since september 2007 to date, even the huge losses of the past month, is just a prelude to the much bigger crisis that is coming by mid 2010, and that according to his predictions it might last 10 years, with the period of 2010-2012 being the worst of all. He describes year by year how the crisis is going to happen (even giving exact months for certain events), here is a quick summary of his predictions.
September 2007 to October 2009: Prelude to the crisis. Governments would take measures to avoid “things going worse”.
October 2009 to May 2010: The believe that “things are not working the way they should” starts to spread out.
May 2010: The Crisis starts with all its force.
2011: The worst and hardest year of the crisis.
2012-2015: Governments regulate the economy and people accept it because they are in shock after what happened.
2015-2018: Slowly and not without problems the economy starts to pick up and improve slightly.
End of 2018: End of the crisis.
It is of course only a prediction of what might happen, but for some reason seems to be based on solid ground.
Looking at the positive side, the world economy will start to slowly recover in year 2015. However, we must save enough for the heavy rainy days to come in 2011.